Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $661,211$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{658,187.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(658,187.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,953$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(564 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,370.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,370.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,187$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,257$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(173 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,868.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,868.7\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.5)}}\) (asimptote \(56.1\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $607$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,949$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(31.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,148.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 178.1)}}\) (asimptote \(59,148.1\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $444$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,151.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 183.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,151.6\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,437$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,403$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,301.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,301.9\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,002$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(489 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,456.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 111.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,456.6\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(13.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 76.2)}}\) (asimptote \(88.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $410$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $102,015$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,278.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,278.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,770$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(630 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,676.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,676.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,713$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $101,743$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(767 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(14.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,181$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,515$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,166.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,166.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $271$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 95.7)}}\) (asimptote \(273.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $314$ on 2020-09-20