Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $661,211$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(3.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{658,187.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(658,187.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,953$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(564 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,370.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(17,370.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,187$ on 2020-09-20

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,257$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(173 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,868.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,868.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.5)}}\) (asimptote \(56.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $607$ on 2020-09-20

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,949$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(31.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,148.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 178.1)}}\) (asimptote \(59,148.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $444$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,151.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 183.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,151.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,437$ on 2020-09-20

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,403$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,301.9}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,301.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-09-20

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,002$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(489 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,456.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 111.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,456.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(13.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 76.2)}}\) (asimptote \(88.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $410$ on 2020-09-20

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $102,015$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,278.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,278.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,770$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(630 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,676.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,676.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,713$ on 2020-09-20

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,743$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(767 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(14.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,181$ on 2020-09-20

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,515$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,166.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,166.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $271$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 95.7)}}\) (asimptote \(273.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-09-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cote d'Ivoire recovered 88%
Egypt recovered 88%
Zambia recovered 81%
Nigeria recovered 67%
Namibia recovered 55%
Zimbabwe recovered 52%
Malawi recovered 35%
Senegal recovered 29%
Rwanda recovered 19%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,320$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,998.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(18,998.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(21.2 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.6)}}\) (asimptote \(126.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $740$ on 2020-09-20

Zambia⮸

Population $18,383,955$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,131$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(287 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,737.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 136.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,737.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $330$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{319.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 112.1)}}\) (asimptote \(319.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $436$ on 2020-09-20

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,242$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,803.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,803.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,098$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(221 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,101.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,101.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,575$ on 2020-09-20

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,377$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(28.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,762.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 161.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,762.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $112$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(7.86 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(121.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,232$ on 2020-09-20